Why has Israel yet to launch a full-blown war on Hezbollah? - analysis

• Published date: 13 March 2024
• Author: YONAH JEREMY BOB
• Publication title: Jerusalem Post, The: Web Edition Articles (Israel)

Within hours, the rhetoric commentators, statesmen, and defense officials shift to sounds something bordering more on war than the still relatively measured conflict between Israel and Hezbollah to date

Act I of the current Israel-Hezbollah conflict showed a somewhat cowered and worried IDF, only responding to rocket and anti-tank missile attacks, but with no significant initiative or attempt to reframe the northern border in a way that would give evacuated residents the security to return.

Yet sometime after the IDF gained operational control over most of northern Gaza and started to take apart Hamas in the south, it did not face a major escalation from Hezbollah, yet it escalated.

Without any one specific ultimatum, in early to mid-December, the IDF started to attack all Radwan Hezbollah forces across southern Lebanon – passing the point of just responding to attacks.

This included hitting the terror group in a variety of villages that it had used as large-scale human shields to avoid being targeted, and not just attacking terrorists in open areas.

At first, Hezbollah's counter-escalation was increased drone attacks alongside its regular rocket attacks and a somewhat increased volume of rockets, including some days with three rounds of attacks.

By late December, it appeared that Hezbollah was undertaking a tactical retreat, withdrawing between 50% to 75% of its Radwan forces to avoid them being killed, while also refraining from a true spike in attacks on Israel, which might change the balance of power, but could also lead to a general war.

Israel's targeted killings of terrorists in January

Everything changed in January: Israel assassinated Hamas deputy chief Saleh al-Arouri while he was visiting Beirut from Qatar.

Hezbollah responded with dozens of rocket attacks, anti-tank missiles, and increased attack drones simultaneously, striking and damaging an important air force base on Mount Meron.

Over weeks starting from January 2, the IDF killed (according to Hezbollah and foreign media, and confirmed by The Jerusalem Post) Wissam al-Tawil, known as Jawad, a key Radwan operations commander in southern Lebanon.

On January 9, IDF Chief Spokesman Daniel Hagari said the air force killed Hezbollah's drone chief Ali Hussein Bergi earlier that day, who "directed dozens of drone attacks against Israel, and was responsible for an attack in which two drones struck the IDF Northern Command's base," he said.

The escalations started to move faster and became harder to...