Voices from the Arab press: Iran and Israel: Is the denial game over?

• Published date: 12 April 2024
• Author: THE MEDIA LINE
• Publication title: Jerusalem Post, The: Web Edition Articles (Israel)

Asharq Al-Awsat, London, April 5

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The recent influx of body bags from Damascus has reignited a crucial question in Tehran's political circles: "Will things be different this time?" These bags carried the remains of 13 Iranian diplomats and military officers, among them two senior commanders from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi and Gen. Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi. They fell victim to an Israeli airstrike on a supposed consular building in Syria, adding to a series of similar attacks targeting Iranian officers, as well as Lebanese, Iraqi, Syrian, Pakistani, and Afghan mercenaries within Syria.

The trend of these attacks has been escalating since 2015 and reached its pinnacle in 2020. While official figures from Iran estimate around 5,000 casualties, specific numbers regarding Iranian officers and mercenaries assassinated to date remain undisclosed. Initially, Tehran manipulated the issue of body bags from Syria for propaganda, organizing grand processions in honor of the fallen. As losses mounted, the propaganda angle waned, and burials became subdued. This shift can be attributed, in part, to the influence of the late Gen. Qasem Soleimani, who aimed to avoid direct conflicts with Israel or the US, even hinting at establishing communication channels with the Israelis through figures like Gen. David Petraeus, the former director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

However, recent events suggest a departure from this delicate equilibrium. Israel's open acknowledgment of its punitive assault on Iran marks a crucial shift. For the first time, Israel targeted a building bearing Iran's official flag, breaking from prior strikes on bases and facilities housing Iranian personnel in Syria. This new dynamic complicates Tehran's ability to deflect responsibility, as these strikes now directly affect Iranian diplomatic installments. Amid mounting calls for retaliation from Iranian officials and the populace, Iran's supreme leader faces a challenging dilemma. The breach of the unspoken agreement between the involved parties heightens pressure on Tehran to respond decisively. With the imminent demands for revenge, [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei finds himself at a crossroads, torn between upholding strategic patience and delivering a crushing response. The outcome of this delicate situation holds significant implications for future actions and the fragile balance of power in the region. –...