US, China, Iran triangle: Between a rock and a hard place

• Author: YONAH JEREMY BOB
• Published date: 29 September 2021

The problem is that the plan is booby-trapped and almost certainly condemned to failure in advance.

The US and the EU will turn to China to try to get it to reduce its oil purchases from the Islamic Republic, Reuters reported Tuesday.

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Recent reports estimate China has been importing at least 553,000 barrels of oil per day in 2021. Though this is still a far cry from what China was and might be importing if there were no sanctions, it is also enough to keep Tehran on its feet economically and defiant against Western pressure.

At stages in which the ayatollahs were more compliant with US and Western wishes, China was importing zero barrels per day or, at most, in the 100,000-200,000 range.

But the chances at this point are low of Washington convincing Beijing to play ball on a tougher line with Iran.

In a September 24 briefing, the Chinese Foreign Ministry put the onus on the US rather than on Iran, stating: "As the one that started the new round of tensions in the Iranian nuclear situation, the US should redress its wrong policy of maximum pressure on Iran, lift all illegal sanctions on Iran and measures of long-arm jurisdiction on third parties, and work to resume negotiations and achieve outcomes at an early date," according to a ministry transcript.

It is even possible that the Islamic Republic's latest move to partially renege on its deal with International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Grossi came after this Chinese pronouncement with the knowledge of backing from Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Due to the current all-out trade war between China and US President Joe Biden's administration (as well as US president Donald Trump's administration before), there is little to no incentive for Beijing to cooperate with Washington against Tehran.

In fact, the Chinese may even enjoy Iran making further trouble for the US as a way to get concessions in the broader trade war.

During Trump's term, there were brief periods in which Xi ordered temporary cooperation with the US on Iranian issues as long as Trump was operating in a mode of greater cooperation with China.

If the Biden administration was willing to make concessions to Beijing, it is quite possible that it would find more of an ally in pressuring the Islamic Republic.

However, this is an unlikely scenario, as Washington has named China as its No. 1...