US, China, Iran triangle: Between a rock and a hard place - analysis

• Published date: 29 September 2021
• Author: YONAH JEREMY BOB

The problem is that the plan is booby-trapped and almost certainly condemned to failure in advance.

As of late Tuesday, Reuters reported that the US and the EU will turn to China to try to get it to reduce its oil purchases from the Islamic Republic.

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Recent reports estimate Chinese imports at 553,000 barrels of oil per day for 2021.

Though this is still a far cry from what China was and might be imported if there were no sanctions, it is also enough to keep Tehran on its feet economically and defiant against Western pressure.

At stages where the ayatollahs were more compliant with US and Western wishes, China was importing 0 barrels per day or in the 100,000-200,000 range.

But the chances of Washington convincing Beijing to play ball on a tougher line with Iran at this point are low.

In a September 24 briefing, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson put the onus on the United States rather than on Iran, stating: "As the one that started the new round of tensions in the Iranian nuclear situation, the US should redress its wrong policy of maximum pressure on Iran, lift all illegal sanctions on Iran and measures of long-arm jurisdiction on third parties, and work to resume negotiations and achieve outcomes at an early date," according to a ministry transcript.

It is even possible that the Islamic Republic's latest move to partially renege on its deal with IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi came after this Chinese pronouncement with the knowledge of backing from Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Due to the current all-out trade war between Jinping and the Biden administration (as well as the Trump administration before), there is little to no incentive for cooperating with Washington against Tehran.

In fact, the Chinese may even enjoy Iran making further trouble for the US as a way to get concessions in the broader trade war.

During Trump's term, there were brief periods where Jinping ordered cooperation with the US on Iran issues for a temporary period as long as Trump was operating in a mode of greater cooperation with China.

If the Biden administration were willing to make concessions to Beijing, it is quite possible that it would find more of an ally in pressuring the Islamic Republic.

However, this is an unlikely scenario, as Washington has named China as its number one foreign policy challenge.

Iran is likely seen as a...