The timing that explains the US-Iran non-negotiation - analysis

• Published date: 30 March 2021
• Author: YONAH JEREMY BOB
• Date: 30 March 2021
• Publication title: Jerusalem Post, The: Web Edition Articles (Israel)

The timing question is whether the US wants to try to strike a deal with current Iranian President Hassan Rouhani before the June elections or more directly with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his camp after elections.

Late Monday, Politico reported a third US attempt to draw the Iranians into negotiations over returning to the 2015 nuclear deal along with follow-on negotiations to a longer and stronger deal.

The Islamic Republic rejected this offer within hours as it had rejected the Biden administration's prior two attempts: one of which had been public and one quieter and more informal.

What is strange about the inability of the two sides to reach an understanding is that both sides have made it clear that they want to reach a situation where each side is complying again with the 2015 deal.

Also, both sides have signaled they are willing to compromise in a synchronized fashion.

Israel and the Saudis are happy that no deal has happened, but why are Washington and Tehran at loggerheads for nearly 10 weeks now about who makes the first concession if they want the same basic result?

Some top officials in the US, and certainly in Europe, have been desperate to return to the deal before the June elections.

In their minds, it may be impossible to cut a deal with the Islamic Republic after June, when the "pragmatists" led by Rouhani may lose their last piece of influence, having been battered by hardliners closer to Khamenei in the last parliament elections.

Yet, until now, it seems a different school of thought has led the way in the Biden administration.

This other school of thought is that Rouhani has always been somewhat of a mirage for the hard-line Khamenei to hide behind to appear pragmatic.

Khamenei may be closer to the hard-liners and the next president may be less pragmatic than Rouhani. But some believe it is better to deal with the regime's true face when cutting a deal.

Further, some in Washington clearly believe that the only way to get Khamenei to agree to add-ons to the nuclear deal – extending its nuclear limits beyond 2030, restricting ballistic missiles and limiting aggressive Iranian behavior in the region – is to not blink first.

According to this thinking, Iran believes that Biden is Obama 2.0 and will concede to its will sometime before the June elections, even if it is late in the game.

These Iranians would believe they have the upper-hand with Biden and that time is on their side.

Maybe the only way to change their mind would...