The lessons Israel must learn from the Iranian attack - opinion

• Published date: 20 April 2024
• Author: ELIAS ZANANIRI/THE MEDIA LINE
• Publication title: Jerusalem Post, The: Web Edition Articles (Israel)

One must be clearheaded about the motives behind Iran's attack. Iran did not attack Israel to express solidarity with the Palestinian people or in defense of the Palestinian cause. Nor did it launch its missiles on behalf of Hezbollah, Syria, or the Houthis in Yemen. Its attack was motivated by a political strategy of shattering Israel's aerial hegemony in the Middle East. From now on, Israel's air force must understand that a tough new player has joined the race for aerial superiority in the region

The Iranian message was clear. Any Israeli strike on any Iranian target, whether in Lebanon, Syria, or Iran itself, will be met by a ruthless and immediate retaliatory attack of the same magnitude. The equilibrium of Israel's strategic deterrence has been devastated to the extent that Israel may need decades to restore it, if it succeeds in restoring it at all.

Had Iran aimed for a deadly strike on Israel, it wouldn't have told half the world about its intention to strike, naming locations and time frames. Iran only wanted to make a point. And it did so well, with little arrogance and great care to avoid any surprise escalation. The primary outcome of the strike for Iran was increasing its bargaining chips in the talks with the US on Tehran's nuclear capabilities that have dragged on since being opened a few years ago.

Israel needs US support in any upcoming strike it plans on Iran. If Iran decides to break all the rules, turn the table upside down, and launch a massive attack on Israel, or if escalation between the two parties gets out of control and turns into an all-out war, Israel's chances of defending itself without outside help are minimal. The gimmick attack last weekend was difficult for Israel's air defenses to abort.

Had it not been for military intervention from the US and other Western allies and assistance of neighboring Arab countries-that allegedly intercepted and shot down some of the weaponized drones-Israel would have faced a very unpleasant scenario, which could have involved numerous human casualties and widespread destruction of areas hit by incoming missiles and drones.

Assessing Iran's missile threat

The missile strike over the weekend was a test balloon through which Iranian military leaders wanted to gauge what political reactions and military challenges to expect should they decide to attack Israel in the future. It was also a test balloon for the Israelis, who learned the limits of their aerial defense capacity. Regardless of...