Low turnout a tragedy for Iraq elections

• Published date: 11 October 2021
• Author: SETH J. FRANTZMAN
• Publication title: Jerusalem Post, The: Web Edition Articles (Israel)

For Israel, the Iraqi elections matter because Iran's control of Iraq is made possible through the use of pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, which have a near stranglehold over the government, enabling them to transfer weapons to Syria and on to Hezbollah.

This means Iraq is a danger to the region by way of its being hollowed out and used as a missile and drone base for Iran. Insofar as an Iraqi government might emerge that is less inclined to be used by Iran, it can be a stabilizing influence. However, low turnout and the status quo may mean Iraq continues to be poor and unstable.

This is a sad day for Iraq because low turnout appears to cement the feeling among young people that they cannot change the country. In the wake of the 2018 elections, there was political chaos as the country had difficulty choosing a prime minister. Even when one was chosen, a series of protests in 2019 led to mass killings of demonstrators, and several more men failed to achieve a consensus for being prime minister. It fell to Mustafa al-Kadhimi to try to shore up Iraq in 2020.

The problems for Iraq are multilayered. The war against ISIS led to destruction of part of the country, as ISIS left in its wake ethnic cleansing and genocide. In addition, cities were badly damaged and some areas depopulated.

The war led to increased Iranian presence in Iraq through a network of militias called Hashd al-Shaabi, or the Popular Mobilization Forces. Those militias became an official paramilitary force in the wake of the war in 2018.

They were supposed to integrate into the regular security forces in 2019, but they have remained with their own commanders, largely forming a lawless part of the state apparatus. They are allowed to hide under state authority and maintain checkpoints, but they also stockpile their own arsenals.

Meanwhile, Iraqis have faced poverty and collapsing infrastructure as the government failed to capitalize on any kind of "peace dividend" from the end of the war. Anger over the infrastructure in a country that is sitting on a sea of oil led to protests in the fall of 2019. This coincided with the dismissal of a popular member of the security forces and the opening of the Syria-Iraq border, which enabled more Iranian weapons to flow to Syria from Iraq.

The context of the elections this year, therefore, comes after years of uncertainty. The militias are involved in war...