Is Yahya Sinwar making rational decisions? AI software says yes - opinion

• Published date: 27 March 2024
• Author: ALEX MINTZ
• Publication title: Jerusalem Post, The: Web Edition Articles (Israel)

A computer analysis conducted at Reichman University's Computerized Decision Making Lab – using the HUDDLEAI software, which combines artificial intelligence (AI) with a unique method for identifying decision patterns – has found that Sinwar's decisions are rational, as they advance his goals and objectives as the head of the terrorist organization, Hamas

This conclusion is not based on any Israeli or Western point of view, but rather on an assessment informed by the ideology and goals of Hamas.

The study was conducted under my leadership as director of the Computerized Decision Making Lab at Reichman and former provost of the university. Research assistant Liam Sadowitz contributed to the study.

AI to understand Sinwar

Using the AI software, a retrospective reconstruction of 14 of Sinwar's decisions was performed, including his decisions on a ceasefire agreement with Israel in 2021 following Operation Guardian of the Walls; the decision to abstain from joining Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) after the IDF operation to eliminate senior members of that terrorist organization; the decision to launch a large-scale surprise attack against Israel on October 7; the decision to agree to a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the release of some of the hostages in November 2023; and the decision to extend that ceasefire at the exit point of November 29, 2023.

The study found that rationality on Sinwar's part cannot be refuted in 12 out of the 14 decisions examined, in view of his avowed goals: the preservation of Hamas's ruling power, the survival of the Hamas leadership, and the release of Palestinian security prisoners. According to the study, Sinwar rationally assesses the various alternatives while taking these key criteria into account.

Although the decision to carry out Hamas's invasion of Israel on October 7, 2023, was not initially identified as rational, following the...