Is the surrender of a senior ISIS Sinai official a game changer?

• Author: YONAH JEREMY BOB
• Published date: 23 September 2021
• Publication title: Jerusalem Post, The: Web Edition Articles (Israel)

The report states that on September 10, Muhammad Sa'ad Kamel al-Sa'idi, aka Abu Hamza al-Qadi ("the judge") surrendered to a tribal militia cooperating with the Egyptian army after promises that he and his family would not be harmed.

Next, the report says that, "Information that reached the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center revealed details about al-Qadi and the conditions in the Sinai Province."

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The intelligence center is made up of former senior Israeli intelligence officials and maintains close ties to the current intelligence community, occasionally receiving exclusive material to declassify.

From the report, it emerges that Al-Qadi is "the second or third most important operative in the Province after the Emir ("commander") and possibly one other person, making him the most senior figure in the Sinai Province to surrender to the Egyptian authorities" to date.

What is even more important is the Meir Amit Center's contention that "the surrender of al-Qadi…will severely damage the organization, because he will give valuable information and intelligence to the Egyptian authorities and because his surrender will be a blow to the operatives' morale."

This is also true because ISIS Sinai currently suffers "from a lack of funds and equipment… from severe hunger… the result of the Egyptian army's operational successes and cooperation with the tribal militias."

According to the intelligence center, he surrendered because of these ongoing ISIS Sinai hardships as well as a lack of weapons and ammunition, limiting attacks to the use of "simple weapons, especially IEDs, instead of wide scale attacks and raids. Their morale is low and there is no solution in sight, leading to tension among the operatives."

In contrast, the report says that the Egyptian army "maintains stability in the northern Sinai Peninsula, invests both funds and efforts in developing the infrastructure. In addition, its counterterrorism activities against the Sinai Province have been successful."

This success can be measured by the removal of ISIS roadblocks, the killing of its operatives and the recent return of "the civilians kidnapped from the...