Iranian attack shows Oct. 7 did not kill Israel-Sunni regional alliance - analysis

• Published date: 14 April 2024
• Author: HERB KEINON
• Publication title: Jerusalem Post, The: Web Edition Articles (Israel)

It is unclear how much, if any, foreknowledge Iran had of Hamas' plans for its horrific Simchat Torah attack, but one thing is certain: the ayatollahs saw it as a golden opportunity to break up the growing alliance between Israel and moderate Sunni countries in the region

That alliance was forged not out of any sudden epiphany among the Sunni states that Israel had a legitimate right to exist in the region, but rather out of a common fear of Iran and an understanding that only by working together with Israel can this moderate camp beat back Iran's hegemonic Mideast designs.

It was not the love of Tel Aviv that the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Jordan, Egypt, Morocco, and -- unofficially -- Saudi Arabia together with Israel, but rather a fear and hatred of Tehran. The presence of Israel in the region might be an annoyance for those countries, but the ideology of the leaders in Iran was an existential threat.

Alliance forged by shared challenge

Out of that threat, cooperation -- including close security cooperation -- was born.

First through the Abraham Accords in 2020, a ball that began rolling after the moderate Gulf countries saw the seriousness with which Israel took the Iranian nuclear threat -- even willing, under the Obama Administration -- to go toe-to-toe with the US president over the issue.

Then, after the Abraham Accords, the next country that seemed on the verge of normalizing its already existing ties with Israel was Saudi Arabia, something that -- last summer -- was gaining significant momentum..

Then October 7 hit.

Hamas believed that with that strike, they placed the Palestinian issue squarely back on the international agenda, and the Iranians believed that this attack -- and what they knew would be a fierce Israeli response -- would scuttle any formal Saudi-Israel pact and would deliver a death blow to the Abraham Accords.

How, they thought, could this alliance continue to exist and even grow with the inevitable anger in the Arab and Muslim world over Israel's war in Gaza and its toll on Palestinian lives?

As the war ground on, as the pictures coming from Gaza -- broadcast 24/7 in the most grisly way possible by Hamas' Qatar-sponsored Al-Jazeera propaganda arm -- the ayatollahs were rubbing their hands in glee thinking that now any Israeli-Saudi normalization, as well as any new regional defense architecture in formation to fend off their designs, were dead in the water.

The response early Sunday morning to Iran's massive assault showed...