Iran's real threat, nuclear diplomacy revealed in Jerusalem - analysis

• Author: SETH J. FRANTZMAN
• Published date: 13 October 2021
• Publication title: Jerusalem Post, The: Web Edition Articles (Israel)

"I think that Iran, to this day, is not even close to acquiring a nuclear weapon," he said. "This is due to long-standing efforts by some forces in the world."

The fact that Iran may not be close to a nuclear device appears to contradict statements that Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has made and which former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu often made as well.

"Iran's nuclear program is at the most advanced point ever," Bennett said at a joint press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on October 10. "The world waits, the Iranians delay and the centrifuges spin."

Bennett and Netanyahu aren't the only ones who frequently claim Iran is closer than in the past to a nuclear weapon. Back in July, former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot said that Iran is nearer than ever to producing a nuclear weapon, according to reports.

If the Israeli statements are confusing, then one can also turn to Iran and its own statements to see what's going on. Iran recently claimed to have 120 kg. of 20% enriched uranium. This could be 80% of the material needed for a weapon, reports said.

"According to the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, 155 kg. of 20%-enriched uranium would be enough to eventually be scaled up to weaponized uranium for a nuclear bomb," The Jerusalem Post reported on October 10.

It's worth noting here that Defense Minister Benny Gantz also discussed the Iran nuclear program at this week's conference.

"Israel is one of the only countries in the world that is still under constant existential threat – with Iran at the top of our agenda. We have developed technological and operational tools that will guarantee our security against Iran's nuclear ambitions," he said.

"Iran aims to become a regional hegemon and tyrant," Gantz said. "Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon, while operating its proxies to conduct violent attacks, disrupt international trade and undermine regional peace."

This week Bennett also warned about Iran's proxies. "Iran, which has dispatched proxies and built armies to surround the State of Israel, aspires to build yet another army on the border of the Golan Heights," he said on October 11.

THE REALITY that can be gleaned from these comments by key figures in Israel is that Iran is closer to a nuclear weapon, but that it is still very far from actually building the weapon and testing it, and that Iran's real threat is the proxies that it has deployed across the region.

This illustrates that Iran's nuclear enrichment may...