Iran follows in footsteps of Imperial Japan, Nazi Germany, and Soviet Russia - opinion

• Published date: 19 April 2024
• Author: AMOTZ ASA-EL
• Publication title: Jerusalem Post, The: Web Edition Articles (Israel)

Understandably, the decision to fire 350 missiles and drones at the Jewish state is measured first by a military yardstick, and then through its diplomatic and strategic dimensions, all of which suggest Tehran has made a big mistake

Even so, the most crucial prism through which to assess this gamble is its historic dimension, meaning the Khomeini Revolution's purpose. And seen this way, this attack was part of a pattern that follows the models of Imperial Japan, Nazi Germany, and Soviet Russia, all of which ended up in total collapse.

IRAN'S ATTACK was the current war's third milestone. The first was the October 7 attack because terrorism never previously unleashed thousands of warriors along a broad, 40-kilometer front where they briefly conquered a whole region.

Having used mainly rifles, grenades, and arson, this attack's initial success was partly due to its technological minimalism. The war's other two milestones, the Houthi and Iranian missile attacks, were this simplicity's inversion.

The Houthi attacks are a milestone because they mark the first military confrontation in outer space. The Iranian attack is a landmark not because of what it deployed but because of what it met – a defensive success that defies similar attacks' success in the Ukraine war.

The Iranian move's diplomatic dimension was no less thrilling, as it made Israeli and Arab warriors fight jointly a common enemy. That the first-ever Star Wars would be fought between the Jews and the Yemenis was improbable enough.

That shortly afterward Israelis and Arabs would become comrades in arms sounded until recently even more fictional.

What is the strategic meaning of the alignment?

The strategic meaning of this alignment is profound. Iran's regional bullying has backfired. After having stationed militias in myriad Arab lands, stoked multiple civil wars, and established political bridgeheads in Baghdad, Sana, Damascus, and Beirut, Tehran's aggression has brought the rest of the region together, and now made it fight back.

Until now, the mullahs' strategic audacity seemed to be working, most impressively in 2019, when Houthi drones torched vast oil facilities in Saudi Arabia with impunity. However, as aggression's dynamics go, its brazenness had to keep growing, and its futility had to emerge.

Now, as Iranian aggression registered its first grand failure while Iran's society frays and its economy sinks, it is clear that Tehran is going the way of recent history's greatest aggressors, all of...