Iran attacks Israel: How we got here and what might happen next

• Published date: 14 April 2024
• Author: BEN SALES/JTA
• Publication title: Jerusalem Post, The: Web Edition Articles (Israel)

The unprecedented attack — from Iranian soil to Israeli territory — is the most direct confrontation ever between the two longtime adversaries. It threatens to spiral into a broader regional war whose consequences could also likewise be without precedent

In the meantime, it has led to fear and injury — a 10-year-old was wounded — as well as surreal scenes, such as weapons fired by the Islamic Republic flying past the Dome of the Rock and Al-Aqsa compound in Jerusalem, a Muslim holy site.

The attack is the culmination of long-running trends and explosive recent events: It comes following a decades-long "shadow war" between Israel and Iran. It is also occurring more than six months after Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel, which launched the ongoing war in Gaza, as well as intensifying clashes between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese terror group and Iranian proxy.

And the strike was no surprise. After Israel killed three senior Iranian military commanders in Damascus nearly two weeks ago, Iran vowed revenge. On Friday, US intelligence reports predicted an Iranian attack within 24 to 48 hours. They were correct.

Because this has never happened before, what happens next is unclear. Israeli leaders told citizens just before 4 a.m. local time that they no longer needed to remain near their safe rooms, indicating that the immediate attack appeared to be over. But it has sparked fears of a wider conflagration across an already combusting Middle East have spiked as the United States and other Israeli allies have come to its defense.

Here's an explanation of the road to Saturday's attack and where it may go from here.

How did we get here?

Iran and Israel have been fighting indirectly for decades. Iranian leaders have vowed repeatedly to wipe out Israel and have funded and armed terror groups on Israel's borders — including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel has responded in a variety of ways: It has fought Iranian proxies. It has bombed or otherwise halted hundreds of weapons shipments to those groups. It is believed to have previously killed Iranian military officials.

More than anything, it has opposed Iran's nuclear program by trying to isolate the country diplomatically as well as by allegedly killing a series of Iranian nuclear scientists. For years, experts and politicians were consumed by debate over whether Israel would — or should — bomb Iran's nuclear facilities. It has not yet done so.

Combating Iran has especially been a focus of Israeli...