If Iran's Khamenei must step down, who will replace him?

• Author: YONAH JEREMY BOB
• Published date: 06 December 2020
• Date: 06 December 2020

Suddenly, on Saturday, an Iranian dissident reporter said that Khamenei may have transferred power to his son, Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, 51, amid concerns over his declining health.

Is this real? Could this be a change to Iran's regime for the first time since 1989? And, if so, who would most likely permanently take over for Khamenei?

First, Ali Khamenei has survived many rounds of speculation that his poor health had finished him off since 2014.

Similarly, there have been many periods of speculation in the last year about North Korea's much younger leader, Kim Jong Un, falling ill, including that he was already dead. But then he would return to the public eye within days or weeks.

Chances are that at the very least Khamenei is sick.

But the lesson from his and Kim's past is that until a supreme leader is dead, they cannot be counted out.

If Khamenei is finally on his way out, Mojtaba is certainly a candidate. He has had significant power within his father's circles and in trying to keep different major power centers within the country divided.

He might even gain the support of Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a state within a state in Iran.

Mojtaba is viewed as a hardliner when it comes to the West.

However, it is highly unlikely that he would be favored by the country's Assembly of Experts, dominated by ayatollahs with religious expertise. Mojtaba does not have the same kind of expertise.

According to Iran's constitution, the ayatollahs pick the successor, and Khamenei is not a king who can simply pass the role on to his son.

The head of Iran's judiciary, Ebrahim Raisi, would probably be the ayatollahs' favorite.

Back in August 2019, there was a spike in speculation about Raisi emerging as the leading candidate to succeed Khamenei, Iran expert Raz Zimmt wrote.

Like Mojtaba, Raisi is viewed as a hardliner and there would be major implications for the US and Israel if he succeeds Khamenei as opposed to some more reform-minded candidates.

Zimmt said that since Raisi's appointment as head of the judiciary in March 2019, the conservative cleric has expanded his efforts to advance changes in the legal system, improve his public image, and increase his media exposure.

This would always be important for someone like Raisi who is on the short-list to succeed the 80-year-old Khamenei.

But the new marketing effort, and the fact that Khamenei is overtly supporting these efforts, take on even larger significance when viewed in light of Raisi's loss...