How Israeli air force could bring Iran to its knees - analysis

• Published date: 14 April 2024
• Author: YONAH JEREMY BOB
• Publication title: Jerusalem Post, The: Web Edition Articles (Israel)

What if Israel finally decides to strike back? What if it decides to take this opportunity to finally bomb Iran's prized nuclear weapons program

Such a scenario has been gamed out for years, but here is one version of what it could look like.

Several quartets of F-35 stealth combat jets could fly by separate routes to hit sites across the massive Islamic Republic, some as far as 1,200 miles from the Jewish state.

Some of the aircraft might fly along the border between Syria and Turkey (despite those countries' opposition) and then race across Iraq (who would also oppose). Other aircraft might fly through Saudi airspace (unclear if this would be with quiet agreement or opposition) and the Persian Gulf.

The main aim would be to eliminate Iran's air defense

They might arrive simultaneously or in waves (as Iran did overnight between Saturday and Sunday) to first eliminate the ayatollahs' air defenses at dozens of Iranian nuclear sites, carefully hand-picked by the Mossad and IDF intelligence.

Their job would be to eliminate Iran's serious air defense shield, a much more sophisticated defense system than anything Lebanon, Syria, or Hamas possesses.

Regardless of whether the F-35s came in unison or in waves, there would almost certainly be a separate wave for Israel's F-15 eagles, F-16 fighting falcons, and heavily loaded F-35s carrying 5,000-pound American GBU-72 bombs. 2,000 pound and smaller bombs might also be used for a variety of targets.

There might even be additional waves after that to assist in penetrating deep into the ground to destroy Iran's top nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz.

The IDF could also potentially use a significant number of its own surface-to-surface ballistic missiles as well as intelligence-collecting and attack drones.

Fordow's main chamber is buried some 80 meters underground, a depth that only the 30,000-pound "bunker buster" bombs in the American arsenal could immediately destroy.

But even under the Trump administration, the US has always refused to provide Israel with such bunker busters.

That said, one does not need to entirely eliminate a facility to render it useless. A repeated series of strikes could block Tehran's access to electric power, bury its entrances and exits, and cut it off from the world.

Such an operation might not be free.

Iran might succeed at shooting down aircraft.

Some aircraft might fail to make the return flight due to fuel issues even if there was some complex midair refueling capability or...