Hezbollah, Iran's next move as Lebanon's politics reach an impasse - analysis

• Author: SETH J. FRANTZMAN
• Published date: 25 January 2023
• Publication title: Jerusalem Post, The: Web Edition Articles (Israel)

The news of the continued work by the judge comes as Lebanon continues to function without a sitting president; the politicians in Beirut voted recently for the 11th time and couldn't come up with a new leader. This leaves the country divided and in a power vacuum

That vacuum is usually filled by Hezbollah, whose goal is to have a leaderless, bankrupt Lebanon, so that it can feed off the remains of the country, hollow it out and fill it with weapons to threaten Israel.

Hezbollah benefits from chaos in Beirut

Hezbollah has a kind of stranglehold on power in Lebanon – not because it is that large of a party, but because it has key allies and enough power to block the opposition from doing anything. Because it benefits from chaos, it is interested in a political impasse.

Gebran Bassil, head of the Christian party the Free Patriotic Movement, has been an ally. Lebanon's politics are sectarian by law, so almost every party has sectarian-ethnic-religious roots, whether Christian Maronites or Shi'ite Hezbollah or Sunnis, Druze, etc. Bassil is also related to outgoing president Michel Aoun.

Aoun was behind the alliance between his Christian party and Hezbollah. Last year, Bassil slammed the US and Israel, accusing them of being behind a conspiracy that supposedly affected the Lebanese parliamentary elections.

This is the usual Iranian talking point: Blame the Americans and Israel for everything. It is used to distract attention from the severe problems that Iran has brought to countries in the region.

Iran's interest in Lebanon's politics

Today, Iran is very interested in Lebanon's politics. An article at Tasnim news in Iran, a pro-government publication, examines the recent controversies in Lebanon, considering how interim Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Bassil are taking differing positions. Iran seems to be concerned that Bassil may be breaking with Hezbollah.

"Hezbollah, which has been trying to keep the situation calm since some disagreements with the Free Patriotic Movement were reported in the media, had to react to Bassil's words by issuing a statement saying: 'We do not want to have any relationship become a dispute with any of our friends,'" Tasnim reported. The terrorist group appears to be threatening the Christian leader.

Hezbollah has also demanded the government not hold any meetings without a "consensus." This means that it doesn't want its allies in the government to hold any meetings unless it dictates the agenda.

According to the report, Bassil...