A crystal ball on 2021: What does the new year bode for Israel? - opinion

• Author: DAVID M. WEINBERG
• Published date: 07 January 2021
• Date: 07 January 2021
• Publication title: Jerusalem Post, The: Web Edition Articles (Israel)

Had one foretold that Israel would sign four peace agreements with Arab countries within four months, or that the US would come close to green-lighting the application of Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria and then pullback from this – most people would have considered this wacky prophecy.

Yet all this happened, which tells you something about the perils of predicting political and diplomatic developments.

Indeed, the accuracy of my forecast for 2020 was mixed. I wrongly expected US President Donald Trump to win reelection. (But note, this was a fair assessment before the novel coronavirus pandemic hit).

I correctly predicted that the Trump Middle East peace plan would move the markers regarding future contours of Israeli-Palestinian peace; and I still believe that Trump's outline will prevail in the long term.

I also was right regarding Trump's determination to combat Iranian aggression. It was exactly one year ago this week that a US drone strike eliminated Qassem Soleimani, commander of Iran's Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. And even this week – in its final days – the Trump administration is imposing additional layers of economic sanctions on the ayatollahs in Tehran.

Here is what I see when looking into my crystal ball for 2021:

Elections: In March, Israel will end up with another political deadlock, but Netanyahu won't resign or cut a plea bargain with legal authorities. Instead, he will maneuver Israel into a fifth election in September while repeatedly delaying his trial proceedings.

Netanyahu will not stand in June for election as the next president of Israel. He will not risk the secret ballot vote in Knesset. Isaac "Bougie" Herzog or Yuli Edelstein will be elected president. Miriam Peretz, the worthiest candidate, does not stand a chance.

In 2017, I predicted that Ron Huldai would enter national politics to take the reins of the Labor Party. He hesitated then, and the Labor Party is nearly defunct now. But neither his new party nor Gideon Sa'ar's will prove to be overwhelmingly popular. Many voters just will stay home.

Corona: Israeli national lockdown 3.5, which began last night, will last far longer than two weeks. Even then, it will prove effective only if police rigorously enforce the restrictions everywhere – in Tel Aviv discos, Bnei Brak yeshivas, and Umm el-Fahm wedding halls.

The vaccinations are wonderful and will keep most people from getting deadly sick, at least until we have to revaccinate in the fall for...