As Biden enters White House, did Israel's Mossad win war with Iran?

• Published date: 07 January 2021
• Date: 07 January 2021
• Author: YONAH JEREMY BOB

Put differently, will Biden rejoin the nuclear deal in 2021, and if he does, were all of Cohen and the Mossad's undeniably impressive operations mere tactical victories which did not help them change the broader strategic picture?

The Jerusalem Post has learned that Israeli intelligence's view is that despite deep uncertainty about the future, Cohen, the Mossad and other defense actions succeeded, given the parameters of the playing field.

A related key question is: Are Israel and the US in practically the same place they would have been if the Trump administration had never pulled out of the deal in May 2018?

Sources would say that the answer is that Israel is in a better place and the best position it could be in despite highly complex forces beyond its control.

Also, in a significant break with many Iran analysts, certain Israeli intelligence and defense sources believe that Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead set on a deal with the Biden administration to improve the country's standing.

If true, this would mean that the obsessive debate over the need for speedy negotiations with Iran is irrelevant and the idea that a deal must be made before the expected June 2021 election of a new hard-liner as Iranian president is mistaken.

If it is true that Khamenei needs a deal even after June 2021, and if Israel can convince the Biden administration not to rush into negotiating a weak deal, this will also color how Cohen's legacy is viewed.

There are significant concerns across the defense establishment that the Biden administration will go back to the old nuclear deal as if nothing had changed regarding the intelligence picture.

The Mossad views its challenge as presenting the Biden administration with the evidence in order to get it to internalize the new intelligence Israel seized from under Iran's nose in January 2018, and which 2015-2016 Obama era officials never got to see.

In prior reports, the Post noted sources close to Cohen discussing the first moments when he gave this new intelligence to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and CIA Director Gina Haspel in 2018.

Cohen would now like to repeat this moment with new officials such as incoming US national security advisor Jake Sullivan and incoming US secretary of state Tony Blinken.

It is one thing for those officials to say that even though they know Iran cannot be trusted, the US can still return to the 2015 nuclear deal as long as the IAEA verifies compliance (and maybe without filling all the holes Israel is concerned about).

But will incoming Biden officials' views change once they see all of the raw intelligence about the five nuclear weapons and the already prepared underground nuclear test sites?

Will they change their views when they see the full picture of Iranian nuclear violations since 2018?

It is one thing to hear...